When death becomes optional: the ‘Longevity Escape Velocity’ & recommendations for strategists
As a society, culture and species we have understood death to be a part of the human experience. The expression “The only thing certain in life is death and taxes” is a proverbial reminder of the certainty of our death. Ancient cultures and civilizations created elaborate rituals and stories around the afterlife, modern religions and modern cultures rationalize death as an important aspect of what makes life worthwhile: the fact that it is finite and fragile. Countless humans before us have fantasized about extending their lives, living for centuries and the idea of immortality.
Are we the first living humans to radically extend lifespan? Are we the first humans to truly flirt with immortality? There are some in the longevity science space who say yes, and with a total addressable market of the whole world, there are many investors who are betting it is possible; and one country (Saudi Arabia) is going all in on longevity therapeutics with $20 billion to accelerate this possibility.
Immortality is not necessary for our governance, economies and society to change dramatically, as we are already seeing important changes as a result of increasing lifespans around the world. According to the Pew Research Center, the world’s centenarian population is projected to increase eightfold by 2050 and by 2015 there were already four times as many centenarians compared to 1990! (In the US alone the centenarian population is projected to quadruple over the next 30 years.)
The rise in older populations and centenarians is an important global megatrend as demographics shift around the world. It has implications on businesses, labor, market preferences, retirement, investments, real estate and just about every industry one can think of. These extended lifespans converge with another important trend which is population growth.
But back to this era’s quest to solve for the illusive mystery of immortality as the advances in medicine will bring longer healthspans, even if they don’t bring immortality, and it will have further implications on demographics as the global population of over 60 will increase from the 1.4 billion 2020, to 2.1 billion by 2050!
Tiny brief history on how we got here
The science of medicine has evolved for millennia throughout the world’s ancient and modern civilizations. A forever changing moment in medical history was when it became common knowledge that disease does not come from God. This opened up the study of modern medicine that we recognize today based on the scientific method. Today, we are at another forever changing moment in medical history and it stems from a new understanding of how disease arises and the new 4th industrial revolution tools we have to solve for it. The current forever changing moment upon us boldly claims that “aging” itself is a disease.
Aging is a disease.
The brief argument is that all diseases have one thing in common and it is aging. The more we age, the more susceptible we are to disease, hence aging is a disease. Just a few contemporary highlights that have pushed the understanding of aging forward: the human genome project which unlocked new understandings of how genes worked, the inventors of the CRISPR software created a DNA editing tool; and multi-disciplinary scientists in the human longevity and aging space have determined that aging is caused by specific hallmarks of aging (depending who you talk to there are between nine and twelve). While this remains an evolving science the below graphic captures these hallmarks of aging:
source:
With the proliferation of books and publications, this area of medicine and scientific inquiry has become more nuanced and more accessible due to advances in artificial intelligence, bioinformatics and software such as CRISPR. It is a growing and promising area of scientific advancement because synthetic biology is a general purpose technology in that it can be used across the entire economy (ie: agriculture, animals, ocean life, food, materials science, biological computation etc). Amy Webb has a great primer on the power of synthetic biology.
Okay, fine. Aging is a disease. But I don’t get it. How do I live forever?
Well, the holy grail of immortality has yet to be found, but the prevailing hypothesis is that it will be brought about by the ‘Longevity Escape Velocity’ which refers to the moment in time when for each year we age, science advances enough to extend our life expectancy by one year. With this logic the idea is that you would be able to manage the damage of aging in a way that it wouldn’t need to become fatal. Technology futurist Ray Kurzweil estimates that we will reach the longevity escape velocity by between 2028–2030 and gerontologist Aubrey de Grey estimates it will be sometime in the 2030s. Both will be proven right or wrong in the near future. While epigenetics researcher David A. Sinclair A.O., Ph.D. believes that the first person to live to 150 has already been born.
In a recent post technology leader, at the intersection of AI and human transformation Nichol Bradford summarized the technologies that would accelerate Longevity Escape Velocity concept and extend healthy years. She identified the following eight developing technological convergences:
- AI-driven personalized medicine for disease prediction and prevention
- AI-enhanced diagnostics for early detection and error prevention
- Digital health solutions providing access to AI-driven health tools
- Cellular intelligence and bioengineering for tissue repair
- Bioelectronics and gene editing to reprogram life and reverse aging
- AI-designed body parts for improved safety and integration
- Brain-computer interfaces connecting human brains to machine intelligence
- Neurotech advancements using AI-driven ultrasound for brain disorders
These technologies are what would contribute to the the ‘Longevity Escape Velocity’. Even if immortality does not come of it, it appears that science is about to repeat advances in extending lifespan like it did a century ago. The convergence of artificial intelligence, bioinformatics, neurotech, bioengineering, bioelectronics, computer engineering, and brain computer interface technologies will not only create new therapies but also new avenues of revenue. As a first order effect it will increase the amount of time people can live in health (#healthspan) and it will transform the health industry. As a second order effect it will transform economies, societies, public policies and how businesses engage with their human capital.
Strategic implications of longer lives & what your organization can do
We are living in very rapidly changing times as we transition into a world mediated by artificial intelligence, where programable biology cures diseases (and even augments humans), and where everything is smart, connected and digitally alive so to speak, where there is a constant back and forth of data, understanding, anticipation, prediction and a conversation between humans and their environment (earth environment and build environment, as well as organizations all via digital twins). In her latest SXSW tech trends talk Amy Webb called all humans alive during this transition period ‘Generation T’, T for transition. Because (whether we like it or not) we are living through this transition period.
Part of this transition is adapting to a ‘Super Aging Era’ characterized by a world with more people in general, more people getting older and a larger population of people over 65. Speaking to the U.S. Federal Foresight Community of Interest I explained that we have reached an unsustainable level of age related prolonged illness in the U.S., which adversely affects the country’s tax revenue base, economic prosperity and wellbeing of population health. I explained that public funding towards longevity related therapeutics will be cost effective in reversing the damage of aging and the adverse impact on the economy. I provide public policy recommendations to create longevity strategies and manage the human capital exodus due to retirement. The full presentation can be found here.
Presentation Link:
In the early 1900s life expectancy in the U.S. was in the 40s, today it is in the 80s — that is a doubling of life expectancy. So even if you didn’t live to 100, if you are alive today you have a chance of making it well past 80. What would you do differently professionally and personally?
From an organization’s strategic planning perspective — how should your company operate differently in this new and emerging demographic environment?
In the table below I provide some recommendations for what your organization can do to strategically prepare across four categories:
- Preparing for the labor shortage due to retirement
- Cultivating a longevity mindset
- Advocating for longevity policies
- Developing a longevity strategy
Cultivating a longevity mindset, and anticipating the changes that longer lives and longevity technologies will bring to society, will help organizations strategically position themselves to take advantage of the new opportunities that are coming. Of which there are many opportunities to seize. 🚀
I’m writing a book about the importance of imagination in business success and competitiveness called Imagination Dilemma and how businesses can overcome it to thrive. The main argument is that when technology can do everything for you, what is left is imagination — and that is the competitive advantage. You can sign up for updates here.
Whenever you’re ready, here are three ways I can help you:
1. Consulting: reach out to explore the strategic advisory services I offer focusing on business growth opportunity areas, competitiveness, moat protection and emerging technologies. Check out my Linkedin profile for the over hundred countless glowing reviews about my advisory work.
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3. Speaking & Workshops: if you’d like more of these kinds of technology convergence thoughts, my global speaking engagements on emerging technologies, the 4th industrial revolution, artificial intelligence and the importance of imagination in an era of AI have been well received with comments like “I wish I met Lydia sooner” and “I deeply admire her intelligence and humanity, and of her ability to challenge and explore how to make any enterprise more impactful and successful toward the greater good.” I also offer quarterly technology convergence awareness and exposure talks. Reach out to book me for a talk.
